football outsiders projections

Los Angeles Rams: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 20) This feels like the kind of team Jeff Fisher dreams about every night. Morocco see off Ronaldo, Portugal; Kane heartbreak as England fall to France, In his likely World Cup finale, Ronaldo's calm, subdued effort not enough for Portugal, From 'Mr. Projected division champions are colored in light yellow and projected wild-card teams are colored in light purple. Scott Spratt in On the other hand, the offensive projection is driven by the quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill has finished 24th and 27th in QBR over the past two seasons. Their top three RBs all missed the entire season. Let's take a look. Gannon was a backup then. I don't have much faith in Lance, but that's a good roster, and they did just fine with Jimmy G the last few years. This is the most lopsided of the 10 conference championship games. Heck, most of the local outlooks on the Lions including my own aren't too generous with the wins in 2021 either. Hard to think going from Wentz to Matt Ryan is THAT big a downgrade. I agree the Colts offense seems particularly low. Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (9.0 mean wins; SOS: 15) Kinda curious how you would even make a projection for Watson. The top and bottom of this division are easier to forecast than the middle. What's up with them going from -12.6 DVOA last season to 2.5% in the preseason projections? NE had such a wacky offseason (mostly bad it looks like), they are really hard to project. I can't see that happening again. Said another way I can buy them being outside of the top 10 on defense, but it'd take an utter disaster for them to be last in the league on offense. 3) The short answer is: the Eagles added the NFL's best YAC receiver over the last few years in A.J. Creator of DVOA andDYAR Gambling problem? Denver AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. Detroit "All defense, no offense" describes Washington's performance in 2020 (3rd in defensive DVOA, last in offense), but last season they actually ranked higher in offensive DVOA (21st, -5.3%) than defensive (27th, 5.8%). New England Patriots: 13-3 (13.2 mean wins; strength of schedule: 32) The odds of getting the No. Rust or rest? 1 team overall going into the 2022 season but we have new No. Carolina Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year's ratings end up about six times as important as either 2014 or 2015. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. The Baltimore Ravens are up despite a loss, the Miami Dolphins are down despite a blowout win. Conversely, Denver has a ton of talent as Tanier even mentions in his chapter. I do think there are legitimate concerns about the level of Jackson's play, the lack of receivers, and lack of pass rush. Even Zimmer really didnt back in 2014. NFL Picks | Football Outsiders NFL Picks Week 14 Revised as of 12/07/2022 11:57 AM EST Confidence goes from 1 (most confidence) to 16 (least confidence). I do think some sort of loser content at the end of the year would be cool. A composite of popular computer formula rankings had Alabama third and TCU eighth. .this years projections give the Vikings a nearly 60% chance of being a playoff team in 2022 (59.7%, to be precise). Its just really hard to keep winning when you have a perpetually revolving door at QB, you wasted draft assets in the process of finding that qb, and then you don't have the talent geared towards passing the ball and stopping the pass. I'm on the pessimistic side of Dallas, on the extreme pessimistic side of the Giants, and I have no idea what to expect out of Philly. And similarly, the defense lacks the premium pass rusher or ace corner. There are going to be at least a couple of familiar faces missing from the Minnesota defense this season. San Francisco 49ers: 5-11 (5.2 mean wins; SOS: 3). Collectively, the Vikings defense should take a step forward, odd as that is given some of the circumstances. Football Outsiders ( FO) is a website started in July 2003 which focuses on advanced statistical analysis of the NFL. . This is a smaller simulation which only uses one set of mean projected DVOA ratings, rather than using 1,000 different sets of ratings to represent that some teams have a wider range of probable performance quality than others. A lot of that with the Ravens is having the No. Maybe, maybe not. by Aaron Brooks G. The difference in actual DVOA is marginal -- I certainly wouldn't say the offense carried them to victories -- but I do think it's fair to say that last year's defense was every bit as bad as the offense.. Yeah, no, that's what I meant - as in "oh my god everything's so horrible let's actually give Alex a try." I can totally see that offensive projection being right due to the new QB and IOL. Dallas declined on offense because of the injury to Tyron Smith. 2. Their likelihood of losing someone significant due to felony went down. Perhaps the projections are off, and Qbase has its revenge on Allen. Brown; the defense added a pair of exciting rookies in Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean, plus quality veterans in Haason Reddick and James Bradberry; and they have the easiest projected schedule in the league. 2. 1, Week 9 DVOA Preview: The Eagles Have Landed, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Frankly, I never imagined Vrable as the head coach guiding the Titans to this much success to begin with. (With all due respect to their distinguished careers. Problems more so arise from being away from the team, due to being a scumbag, and not getting to practice with your fellow teammates and build that chemistry. Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (9.5 mean wins; SOS: 1) When they made that switch last year the 49ers went from below average on run defense to the clear best unit in the NFL. And maybe Ryan is better than he was in Atlanta, but he's not the guy he was several years before the decline. Projection Points | Football Outsiders Projection Points Applying our advanced stat analysis to your fantasy football team. Outsiders: Early 2016 NFC projections Yet they are projected to fall from 10th to 27th. sitting tops in seconds per play at Football Outsiders and Top 10 in . But if we go off the small sample of Lance from last year based off DVOA/DYAR he really isn't that big of a downgrade from Jimmy G at 18% over a large sample vs. 20% for Lance over about 3 games of play time. Here's what the 2017 NFC playoff picture would look like according to our early projections. Note that there's a big difference between DVOA and projected DVOA. Losing Scramble and adding DFS stuff is like when Netflix cut a bunch of content and added ads and called it streamlining. Baltimore Ravens: 8-8 (7.8 mean wins; SOS: 19) Like, the decision to go to Smith actually made sense, which is why it was such a ridiculously bad offense. But the Vikings have never been a team that functions normally anyway. Man, if that doesnt sum up the entire experience of being a fan of this team, I dont know what does. The Broncos already defied historical NFL trends by putting up a second straight season of otherworldly pass defense, and the odds they can do it three straight seasons are even longer. Then again, I wouldn't want to bet against them, in part because it might make Chris Harris Jr. angry on Twitter. We launched Football Outsiders back in 2003. The NFC East also draws the two West divisions, which means facing many of the league's top defenses. They have been top 10 for 3 straight years with terrible injury luck and a change in DC. And even if he was, Julio Jones is not on this team. Tim Patrick has been really good the last couple years! How Philadelphia Eagles Took the Fight to Tennessee Titans, Why Cincinnati Bengals Are Kansas City's Worst Nightmare, Waiver Wire Week 14: Playoff Push Pickups, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Tyler Huntley, Justin Fields, and the QB Rushing Quandary, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss, Burrow-to-Chase Returns; 49ers' Purdy Predicament, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Bengals, Chiefs Lead Loaded Schedule, TCU, USC Put Playoff Bids on the Line in Championship Week, All-32: Michael Gallup Set for Big Game Against Colts, Micah Parsons' DPOY Problem; Partying with the Broncos, How Bengals Beat Titans at Their Own Game, Breaking Down the Playoff Picture, from Eagles to Texans. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. Miami moves up five spots, Buffalo is back to No. Between going to a new coach and system I would expect some difficulties but I can't think of a good comp. Carolina's projection is pretty simple: a bit of rebound on both sides of the ball combined with an easy schedule. For a team that went 8-9 in 2021 and played in a lot of one-score games, that seems like a pretty significant jump. Thanks for the work you put into it. As we've assumed from all of the individual preseason rankings we've seen (not to mention the magazines), Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon are the top two, and the top 10 is filled out with Stanford, Clemson, Louisville, and SEC teams. In the five years since, 2015-2019, the mean DVOA forecast had a correlation with actual wins of .503. 4. In reply to I'm surprised it's so down by KnotMe. Honestly, it's not hard for me to envision this team being solidly above average. . Dallas is a total wild card. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (6.4 mean wins; SOS: 8). In reply to I would be stunned if this by theslothook. 9. Have little fear! 9. The Bills could win a few games with Keenum under center - I just don't see Dallas doing that if Prescott's out. Their low-water mark is 91 games lost, and it tends to be guys like Garoppolo or Kittle or Bosa, rather than a rash of special teamers or WRs 3-8. 1. Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 131 Division I-A (FBS) teams. If there's enough interest, perhaps I can do something during my Thursday column this year -- or at least have a running comment thread each week, celebrating the Losers of the world. I admit, this may be a bit too much of a change, moving the Jets almost up to the Dolphins and out of the AFC East basement, but like I said above, sometimes our numbers have weird results and we just accept that. Georgia won 45-19. Los Angeles Chargers: 8-8 (7.9 mean wins; SOS: 14) The numbers here are a forecast, with offense, defense, and special teams DVOA all projected separately using a system based on looking at trends for teams going back to 2009. In reply to Losing Scramble and adding by Aaron Brooks G. This year, we are projecting five new playoff teams: Baltimore, Indianapolis, and the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC, Minnesota and New Orleans in the NFC. In reply to Duly noted! FEI, used by Football Outsiders, had Alabama fifth. Football Outsiders' DVOA Ranks Arizona Cardinals as One of Worst Teams in NFL - Sports Illustrated Arizona Cardinals News, Analysis and More Football Outsiders Ranks Cardinals as One of. Lines and odds from OddsJam. Even when they're bad they're notthatbad. 14. 2. Football Outsiders released its DVOA projections for 2020 and the advanced analytics site didn't rank the Denver Broncos high, though its ranking doesn't tell the whole story. As always, the offensive projections come out in a wider range than defensive projections because offense performance tends to be easier to predict (and more consistent from year to year) than defensive performance. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (6.9 mean wins; SOS: 16). Yes, these are the projections that feed into DAVE for the first few months of the season projections now feed into DAVE for longer than you think, something like 12 weeks. 8. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. We end up with Dallas repeating as the most likely scenario, although our projections might underrate the importance of its defensive losses, because there could be a compound effect from losing so many players at the same position (defensive back). Use promo code, The Wild World of the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush, Bengals Climb Past Dolphins with Titans Win, Week 12 DVOA Preview: the Dolphins-Ravens Paradox, Cowboys, 49ers Climb in DVOA with Big Wins, Week 11 DVOA Preview: Cowboys Top the NFC, Week 10 DVOA Preview: Buffalo Bills Back to No. They're basically the only team that's almost guaranteed to have very good special teams, which raises their mean projection overall. 4. When you reviewed everything did that pass your sanity test? Brian Fremeau provides [] Tampa Bay In reply to Off topic, I know, but where by Calipanther. 3. 2. Welcome to the Football Outsiders Coach Rankings show for NFL Week 13! Its the Lions Super Bowl on Sunday- Can the Vikings Upset Expectations? I actually played LL before taking up any other FF, and I quit FF a few years back, but still enjoyed LL tremendously. It's still going to be Scrambly in tone and concept; itisme running the dang thing, after all. The Cowboys enter Week 13 ranked No. They've lost by 17, 3, 10, 7, 16, and 4 points since their bye in Week 7. Raiders? I think everyone at this point knows when a rookie QB plays New England it's gonna be pick central. Obviously, the Cleveland Browns have changed the most since our simulation in the book because at that time we were assuming that Deshaun Watson would be suspended for the entire season. 1. Includes comprehensive coverage of all 32 NFL teams, analysis of offseason personnel changes, over 500 KUBIAK fantasy football projections, and breakdowns of every team from the five major college football conferences plus the top independent and mid-major college teams. Subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app. Remember that some of the teams at the bottom of our projections are going to surprise and make the playoffs. At least one of the AFC South teams will climb up and be better than this. He writes regularly for ESPN.com and ESPN the Magazine, and has done custom research for a number of NFL teams. Hell, he was hurt for a chunk of 1993, too. Green Bay Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? 12. They also get after the quarterback, and Buffalo is down their starting left tackle. Taylor had the best BackCAST projection of all . In reply to Best futures NFL bet ever! by Franchise_Punter. Well, there are 7 worse by projected wins, which seems reasonable. . The Ravens' season-long DVOA was-2.7% (19th), while the Bengals' was -0.1% (17th). Some of that is the fact that Smith has a higher "team-free quarterback projection" and part of it is that teams with poor projected quarterbacks do even worse if those quarterbacks are new to the team. Be sure totune in live throughout the offseason on YouTube to join the conversation! Scramble isn't by Bryan Knowles. Buffalo Stop by every Thursday throughout the 2022 NFL season to preview weekly matchups, talk prop bets, and more with Aaron and Mike. Washington The matchup is difficult, as New England is ranked 3rd in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. 1, and the AFC East looks awesome. It's really hard to imagine them being the worst offense in the league next year againand Chase Young coming back could easily throw a monkey wrench in the whole "huge defensive regression" thing. Arizona Cardinals: 10-6 (9.7 mean wins; SOS: 24) 1 special teams projection. Also we seem to sleeping on the Dre Greenlaw return. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. September 10, 2021 7:15 am ET. The decline of parity is reflected in this first round of Football Outsiders' 2017 team projections. Something just feels really wonky about these ratings, probably as much as ever (though the years blend together after a while). They only got to three conference games. I was initially stunned that the Titans were projected as the 29th ranked team. 10. It took him a while to get going again and it's likely he got much better coaching than Watson will, In reply to I think Michael Vick is a by Chuckc. I'm sorry, but yeah, we're not going to be able to do the Loser League this year. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Kinlaw is probably a downgrade vs. DJ Jones against the run and an upgrade against the pass. This year, we have two. 4. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Thats generally what Cousins-led offenses have produced and its easy to see why this year could follow the same path unless it turns out OConnell is out of his depth. The Chiefs slide as a result of their bungle in the jungle, the Cowboys slip past the Eagles in the night, and much more. The Over/Under total for Thursday Night Football hit the board at 45.5 points on Sunday night and quickly shortened to as low as 43 with one-sided play on . Everyone forgot Sewell and Jamarr skipped a year too not they look like studs. They didn't lose any starter or even backup (until preseason cuts) from last year, they added two vets in Ingram and Flowers and they have two young guys on the upswing in Holland and Phillips. Not only is that tough to square when losing someone as sharp as Zimmer, but also when considering first-year defensive coordinators, including veterans of the job, tend to not elevate their unit in the first season. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Interim HC Grades, Harbaugh Collapses? Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that made the playoffs in one of the past two seasons. How much different remains to be seen, but I think were all expecting something a bit more explosive than what we were used to seeing at the tail end of the Zimmer era. The high projection for the NFC East in general is partly due to them playing the AFC South this year. Be sure to subscribe to the podcast by looking for the "Football Outsiders Podcast Network" on your favorite podcast app. The 49ers defense seems like a lock for a top 5 season given the easier schedule. In reply to Rust is hard to project. Thats going to be a pretty good team if it happens, better than people are expecting. Cleveland Browns: 5-11 (5.4 mean wins; SOS: 11). Now that's not meant to sound facetious. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Lead editor Aaron Schatz is the creator of FootballOutsiders.com and the proprietary NFL statistics within Football Outsiders Almanac, including DVOA, DYAR, Adjusted Line Yards, and the KUBIAK fantasy football projections. Without trying to figure out what's up with the offense, I'm curious about the defense. Miami And he was a PBer right away, along with some All Pro votes. As we say every year: "A few of them will look strange to you. Photo Attribution: US Presswire This post is part of a larger post ESPN did on their 2012 OSU preview. 15. Football Outsiders will be streamingLIVEevery weekday at during the NFL season. Editor's Picks. Thanks! * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). Bosa is now 2 years removed from the ACL tear and Fred Warner is going into year 2 of a new defensive system. Our projections lean a bit more toward the former than the latter, but the Packers are still well ahead of the rest of their division. In reply to +1 I know that Wentz's reputation is in the toilet, But his season-long metrics were far better than heineke's and much better than his current reputation suggests. (One other change I made from the book simulation: Kansas City has a higher special teams projection here based on the fact that the Chiefs, like Baltimore and New England, have been somewhat consistent on special teams ranking in the top five for seven of the last nine years since Dave Toub took over as special teams coordinator.). We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Buffalo still #1 despite losing Punt Rapist. In reply to Gannon was a backup then by cstoos. Yet still ended up AP OROTY-3. Indianapolis https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/qb/2021, Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. ), then again, we still have Seattle. Founder of Football Outsiders Most notably, Football Outsiders' models have been down on the Bucs all year. I assumed the schedule was part of the reason for the wins projection but even the DVOA projection surprised me and I assume that's schedule-adjusted. Yes, they are getting injured players back, but stillI'd say the Ravens are maybe the #2 team in their own division. Also note that stat projections naturally consider a wide range of possibilities. In reply to Special Teams by Aaron Schatz. Slight improvements along the offensive line on top of whatever offensive flare OConnell may bring should be enough to get the Vikings jostling for a top-10 ranking again. Overall, the average of the range of projections comes out with a top-10 offense and special teams combined with an average defense and an easy schedule (25th). 1. What I meant was that they werebuiltas all defense, no offense, and while you can't expect things to revert back to '20 even with Young returning because of the whole defensive regression thing (super defenses aren't real, and it's not like Young was having a great year anyway), ending up as the worst offense in the league in '20 took them thinking one-legged Alex Smith was a good option. Gannon started 12, 11, and 12 games prior to 1993. There wasn't enough of a response last season to justify running it as it's own thing this year, I'm afraid. Rivera's never had an offense that bad before. With Watson, we project the Browns as a top-five offense. 4. And of course that would land them in "solidly below-average" territory, but not among the dregs of the league sincesome teams will underperform the worst projections. Kansas City* Aaron Schatz in DVOA Analysis See our ethics statement. Washington will have to weather the loss of two starting receivers and an offensive coordinator, but the Redskins are still more likely to be an average team than a bad one. "Football Outsiders" founder Aaron Schatz joins "Good Morning Football" to make predictions for the 2021 season. Mercifully, I didn't have to wait long to savor the opposite feeling. Some of it is a little regression to past performance (2019-2020). If the offense can be garden-variety bad instead of last year's near-historic impotence, it's enough to make the Rams playoff contenders. I tend to think that this probably overrates New England's decline though, because pretty much moreso than any other team they're basically always near the top of the league in interceptions. People who know me know how much I believe in the magic coming out of Baltimore. Indianapolis has mustered 16 and 17 points vs. quality defenses in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia the past two games. As someone who hasn't participated in any Fantasy games for several years -- Loser League included -- I can't complain. In reply to I remember in 2005, the by theslothook. May be, and for the good of the site I'm hoping there is, too. Not really applicable. There's no particular reason for it. Phillips' scheme will likely have a similar effect in Los Angeles, where the defense was already loaded with talent in the front seven. "Better" here is relative, though: it's not that I think that DVOA or the win total might not be close, it's just that I'm pretty darn confident that there will be way more than 2 teams worse than them. Third highest graded game of the season was his first with the team. .because the Football Outsiders Almanac is worth the purchase and Id be a real jerk if I just gave you, like, the entire Vikings chapter or something. The undefeated Philadelphia Eagles have overtaken the Buffalo Bills at the top of the DVOA rankings. The smaller simulation comes out with a wider range of outcomes than the more complicated simulation we do for the book. 8. If you're not familiar, FO uses DVOA as its base measure of team strength. In reply to I would assume DVOA includes by KnotMe. In reply to that one is confusing by RickD. It says that in the article, right? Otherwise, they wouldn't haveme doing it; good lord. Preseason football, but real football nonetheless. Rust is hard to project. They seems to be overrated by DVOA toward the end of last season. Per Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have the second-most estimated wins in the NFL, at 10.2. Note that the offensive projection in the table above represents 11 games of Brissett and six of Watson, but the simulation is based on Watson playing the last six games and any playoff games which is why the Browns have higher Super Bowl odds than other teams with similar average wins. a new full playoff odds report simulation, ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). That first-place finish doesn't do the Texans any schedule favors, because there's a big difference between playing the Patriots and playing the other AFC East teams. 1. The obvious one to question for me is Cleveland. We're. The 2008 NFC West would have pulled that stunt off, if it wasn't for those meddling kids, the 0-16 Detroit Lions. Will there be a Loser League this season? 1 plus Jets on the rise, September vs. October performance, and great offensive debacles of DVOA history. They could be good or horrible, but I think they're even more dependent on Prescott than Buffalo is on Allen. Close wins put the Lions into the playoffs last season, despite ranking just 27th in DVOA. We had him as a perfectly average passer and also the best running QB in the league. It seemed mind boggling. . Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. (Guys who racked up the most anti-value!). Sorry to hear it's no longer feasible, but thanks for the great run! And for the first time since 2003, our 2017 projections also give the Raiders a better than 50-50 shot at a winning record. Carolina Panthers: 9-7 (9.3 mean wins; SOS: 31) Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.0 mean wins; SOS: 6). The semifinals are set! And all seemed right with the world(well, for me anyways). Pittsburgh and New England come out far ahead of the rest of the league in our forecast, with the Steelers powered by the best offensive projection in the league. Theyshould, but the exact same thing was said about Miami/Marino after they lost that SB to the Niners. So I don't mind saying that our projection system seems far too optimistic about a rebound performance from the 38-year-old Carson Palmer. And, again, if you want to get your own copy of the Football Outsiders Almanac for 2022, you can grab them at the links up in the first paragraph. Fading Josh Allen is always a scary proposition, but this under has a lot of value. 2020 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system. What If Justin Herbert Isn't All That Great? Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 10-11 December 2022, The Daily Norsemans Minnesota Vikings Twitter List, The Complete Minnesota Vikings Draft Pick Database. The fine folks at FootballOutsiders.com (FO) published their annual Football Outsiders Almanac yesterday. He wrote the chapter on the Vikings for this years Almanac, so he took the time to answer the five queries I posed for this years squad. But its just so meh at everything but guard. Ian O'Connor and Vince Verhei are to review the most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past weekend of football. On one hand, FO. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. "Football Outsiders Almanac will not only make you a better fantasy owner, it will make you a smarter football . Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. 3. "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com The DVOA ratings that appear on the website during the season are based on the actual play-by-play that happens during the season, with no future projection whatsoever. After that, we account for general regression trends and incorporate a number of other variables that measure everything from turnover ratios to personnel and coaching changes on both sides of the ball. 2. But dramatic, year-to-year changes actually happen less often now than they used to. I by KnotMe. Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 You add it all up and the Colts have a roster destined to conquer the might middle of the NFL. After two years being batted away by the Patriots, the Colts finally looked like the team of destiny. When someone points out that Minnesota ranks 20th in Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), 18th in offensive EPA per drive (per TruMedia) and 17th in defensive EPA per . Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (7.5 mean wins; SOS: 30) 2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. NFL Week 12 QB Projections ; NFL Week 12 QB Notes Josh Allen (BUF) vs. DET: Over the past month, Allen (950-4-6 passing, 5.9 AY/A) has looked more like his 2018-19 self (6.2 AY/A) than the. The Chiefs are scoring just under 30 points and are also number one in Football Outsiders' DVOA rankings. New York Jets: 6-10 (6.3 mean wins; SOS: 25). If this team wasn't called The Ravens, I would be much more concerned about their floor. You can find a detailed breakdown of our projection methodology at the bottom of the article. Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 4) In the book, the Bills led the NFL with 10.2 average wins. Gain access to premium articles like Derrik Klassen's full game-by-game preview with detailed film and data breakdowns. Gannon missed all of 1994 and almost all of 1995. The projections also give the Vikings a 43% chance of winning between 9 and 11 games this season, and a 23% chance of winning 12 or more games. The Vikings had a top-10 offense in both 2019 and 2020. 3. 1. I would assume that if Lance doesn't even improve in any way this is a 7-9 win team. Obviously, the NFL is going to have teams that are 11-6 or better, and it is going to have teams that are 6-11 or worse. Editor-in-Chief In reply to "All defense, no offense" by dmb. Come January, that same Cousins-led offense will probably fall a little short the way it always has, but at least the Vikings will be playing watchable, even exciting, offense again. Baltimore is the No. A few of them look strange to us." Some things haven't changed: In our first season forecast, no team in the AFC South came out with a winning record. Yes, definitely closer than usual. But it's still more likely that the Bucs will just stay mediocre. Five Good Questions with Football Outsiders: Projections for the 2022 Minnesota Vikings, Vikings activate Cameron Dantzler, place Jonathan Bullard on IR. They just released an updated win projection, and the models haven't gotten any better. 1 in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders . Not enough response on it last year for us to do the work on it this season. 14. Overall I do tend to agree with you that it seems reasonably likely for them to end up very close to their projected DVOA / wins. They're not going to be great, but they're not going to be worst in the league awful. I would assume DVOA includes coaches somehow. The Eagles projection literally prompted me to google "eagles qb" to see if I'd missed something, but nope, still appears to be Jalen Hurts! And although it only counts for expected wins and not DVOA, playing a last-place schedule should also benefit the Ravens. The numbers we are presenting here are exactly what the projection system spit out. And since the Football Outsiders database now goes back to 1989, I thought it would be worthwhile to test the predictive power of Football Outsiders' ratings. Tennessee They haven't been below (above?) Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Buffalo Bills Clear Favorites in 2022 DVOA Projections, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . No matter the stat, there's never been a 10-2 team like the Minnesota Vikings. Not many comps for guy missing that much time without a major injury, and he was elite in 2020, but it's hard to know if that was his new level (defensible given his age) or a matt ryan year. Football Outsiders takes an early look at which teams will dominate in 2017, which ones will stall and which ones will take a nosedive in the standings. And why are the Titans so bad? In general, our forecast each year will "project" the playoffs to look very similar to the playoffs from the year before. I want to thank Derrik Klassen and Aaron Schatz for taking the time to answer my questions about the 2022 Vikings and the projections that Football Outsiders has for them for the upcoming season. The Dallas Cowboys climb into second place in pre-MNF Week 11 DVOA, the Jets tumble from the top 10, and more. Tennessee Titans: 8-8 (8.1 mean wins; SOS: 29) 3. Brian Fremeau of Football Outsiders posted his projections on ESPN Insider at the end of Travis Haney's article the other day. 1) to the easiest (New England). If you're sick of seeing the Patriots at the top of the AFC year after year, I have some bad news for you: New England has a top-five projection in all three phases of the game. When Aaron Rodgers is on his game, the recipe for the Packers is simple: good team if the defense is bad, great team if the defense is good. Use promo code WRITERS to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip the team of writers. The preview for the Vikings in this years FO Almanac says that Its weird how much our projections like this team in 2022. Without giving away too much, why do the numbers think that the Vikings could be a team that surprises this season? But I guess you take away Landry from a defense that was bad a year ago + now you've lost AJ Brown and I suppose maybe its true. Our final question has to do with the outlook for the 2022 Vikings, as the Football Outsiders projections seem to really like the club. But that's beside the point, since options 1 and 2 were also bad, and Wentz is highly likely to be better than Haskins-level -- and if not, their backup is thebestoption the 2020 team ended up having (Taylor Heinicke). Philadelphia Eagles: 8-8 (7.6 mean wins; SOS: 5) Breakdowns on the top 50 college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 130 Division I-A (FBS) teams. I know DVOA projections are always more conservative than what will inevitably happen, but this still seems very constrained. The underdog, Liquid, is currently priced at +131 moneyline odds. Three teams have improved their projected mean DVOA by at least 2.5% since the simulation we ran for the book, and five teams have declined by at least 2.5%. New England I'm really surprised that the Ravens are ranked at 2. Then came one of the worst gut punch losses I've ever experienced as a fan. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. They seem to have a wider-than-average range of possible outcomes for this season, which I would have though equated to a more middling projected DVOA. That doesn't explain the Giantswell, I guess Giants and Titans are basicly the same thing. In reply to Why is the Giants defense by AFCNFCBowl, In reply to I blame Zeus. (Denver was going to be a projected playoff team, but the Raiders have passed them slightly in this new simulation.) At that point, I wanted to abandon being a colts fan. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? Are you *sure* you put the numbers in right? Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 28) At one point, they were missing nineplayers (including all expected starters) from their secondary. And of course, the season played out like that. For now. Eleven of the 12 teams that would make the playoffs based on mean projections are teams that . Off topic, I know, but where is Loser League? In reply to Yeah, that makes sense! The same goes for the Giants' defense; but their offense should improve with the addition of Brandon Marshall. The secondary might take its lumps, particularly early on, but the level of talent there is higher than what the Vikings had in 2021. So I was catching up on some old blog-reading and came across this excellent post by Brian Burke, Pre-Season Predictions Are Still Worthless, showing that the Football Outsiders pre-season predictions are about as accurate as picking 8-8 for every team would be, and that a simple regression based on one variable 6 wins plus 1/4 of the previous season's wins is significantly more accurate Our database goes all the way back to 1983, and is available to download for subscribers. and Now Duane Brown might go on IR. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Dallas is No. How does this compare to the rankings projected in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013? 1 projected special teams unit. | FO Coach Rankings, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . "A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons, The Ringer.com Somehow swapping out Heinicke and Scherff for Wentz and Norwell equates to an 11 spot drop? New Orleans Saints: 7-9 (7.2 mean wins; SOS: 22) The Dolphins' 10-6 record last season was built on an easy schedule, but Miami wasn't a bad team that lucked into a playoff spot, just an average one. MLB winter meetings winners, losers and takeaways: Our favorite (and least favorite) moves of the week, NCAA volleyball 2022 regionals: Expert breakdown and predictions, Transfer Talk: Man City tracking France World Cup star Theo Hernandez. 3. The Buffalo Bills top the preliminary Week 10 rankings despite Sunday's loss, while the Minnesota Vikings finally reach the top half of the NFL. For this question, Derrik passed the baton to Aaron Schatz (who you can find on the Twitters @FO_ASchatz), who is the man that handles the projections for Football Outsiders and is the Editor-in-Chief of the site. explaining what we like about Philadelphia in great detail. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/almanac/2022. Green Bay Packers: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 12) If you are looking for subjective projections, Thursday we will be running our usual staff predictions article where we all talk about where we think the numbers are wrong. Impressive that even the Bills get only a 12.7% SB win chance despite a good offseason and being pretty stacked. This has become something of a trend, and may represent draft strategy backfiring. Beginning with Football Outsiders Almanac 2009, Brian Fremeau and Bill Connelly, originators of Football Outsiders' two statistical approaches -- FEI and S&P+, respectively -- began to create a combined ranking that would serve as Football Outsiders' 'official' college football rankings. 6. 4. Save 10% & Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders' independent media. 5. Los Angeles Rams Yeah, that was just horribly written, I think I forgot what the heck I was thinking about mid-way through. By AGL, the Ravens' injury impacts were 3x worse than the Bengals'. Obviously on a small sample size butfeels like rust is just an excuse fans use when they don't have off 5/6 days (we know everyone hates Thursday games because it's not enough rustI mean rest). BAL being back and some teams making the playoffs that didn't last year(MIN,NO) (The Raiders taking the last playoff spot from NE is narratively convenient). 3. Now they are at 10.6. Houston At the start of a new season, our simulation is very conservative about the average number of wins and losses expected for each team. I've been saying on various promotional podcast appearances that the offensive line injuries in Tampa Bay didn't drop the Buccaneers below the Kansas City Chiefs in our offensive projections but once I did a final update on the offensive line variables, guess what? The Defense finally looked good. In reply to Yeah, that was just horribly by Pat. Plus, introducing game variance! And which of 2016's most disappointing teams look primed for a rebound? 15. So what am I missing? I mentioned it before, different position but still a multi time PB offensive player traded to a different team in conference this century but not exactly due to injury, is Trent Williams. In reply to I was initially stunned that by theslothook. Washington's third-down defense last year was particularly atrocious and although I'm somewhat worried by the fact that this continued throughout the preseason, it's at least typically an area that would particularly be expected to drive reversion toward the mean. On offense, a lot of the issue is just the likelihood of rebounding to prior performance. (halfway IIRC), In reply to NE had such a wacky by KnotMe. 2. Plus, a look at schedule strength so far and remaining. Our system starts by considering the team's DVOA over the past three seasons and, on offense, a separate projection for the starting quarterback. Cleveland continues to rebuild, but at least the defense should be better with a full season from Jamie Collins and the return of Desmond Bryant and Nate Orchard from injury. Chicago Bears: 7-9 (7.0 mean wins; SOS: 13) Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. Tennessee declined significantly on defense because of the ACL tear for Harold Landry. The bottom dozen teams in the league by DVOA projection consist of the entire AFC South and eight NFC teams. Our Denver projection might be a surprise, but a full turnover of the coaching staff often presages a drop for winning teams. 11. The one that does not make sense is the drop on the defense rating. So in general I just don't get the drop in defense. Did I miss it somewhere? 16. How do the numbers stack up for each Mountain West team? The line for Sunday's showdown between Minnesota and Detroit has moved from Vikings -1 to as high as +2.5 since open. The AFC is more difficult not because it has the best teams but because the NFC has the worst teams. Football Outsiders, best known for their work in NFL analytics, recently released their annual Almanac and, in doing so, unveiled their projections for the 2021 college football season using F/+, a combination of Brian Fremeau 's FEI rankings and Bill Connelly 's SP+ rankings. Editor-in-Chief I think Michael Vick is a good close comparison. 1. I think the offense will certainly have a much different look with Kevin OConnell at the switch than weve seen over the past few years, thats for sure. But, as the Almanac details, the level of talent, if anything, is higher than it was last season, particularly if Danielle Hunter and ZaDarius Smith can stay healthy and be the pass-rushing terror duo that theyre capable of being. 1 teams on both offense and defense. I had Manning's same expression when he saw Mike Vanderjagt miss the field goal; in a game that frankly the Colts had been outplayed the entire night and required several miracles to happen(an overturned interception, the Bettis clock sealing fumble). Really sad to hear that by fynsta. Dallas They should have a top-10 offense again, and a full year with Mario Edwards Jr. across from Khalil Mack should improve the pass rush. Cuz lmao that's gonna look silly in a couple months. Bills vs. Patriots predictions Patriots +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook Sharp money has continuously hit this line since the opener, as the Patriots have dropped from 5.5-point underdogs to 3.5 . The return of Earl Thomas should help the Seattle defense rebound from its December implosion, and that makes the Seahawks the favorites in the NFC, once again. Losing Eberflus could be a huge; especially since they went with Gus Bradley at defensive coordinator. Each time it plays through the season, it adds 1.5% to the DVOA of every winner and subtracts 1.5% from the DVOA of every loser before moving on to the next week's games. When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2017. 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A 10-2 team like the team of destiny their offense should improve with Ravens... 2 of a new coach and system I would assume DVOA includes by KnotMe rise September. Missing from the Minnesota Vikings in any way this is the Giants defense AFCNFCBowl! N'T have to wait long to savor the opposite feeling cuz lmao that 's na. From 10th to 27th college Football teams and full win-loss projections for than! That seems like a pretty significant jump impotence, it 's enough make! 10-2 team like the team of destiny who has n't participated in any way this is the. With a winning record new coach and system I would assume DVOA includes by KnotMe 1 plus Jets the... In defense 49ers defense seems like a pretty good team if it was n't for those meddling kids the! Use | Privacy Policy | Responsible Gaming, Interim HC Grades, Harbaugh Collapses not DVOA playing... Giants and Titans are basicly the same thing Buffalo Bills at the of... 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Support the Writers Support Football Outsiders coach rankings, Support Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 anyways ) talent! Least one of the worst gut punch losses I 've ever experienced as a perfectly average passer also. Everything did that pass your sanity test who has n't participated in fantasy! Near-Historic impotence, it 's gon na look silly in a lot of that the... Good Questions with Football Outsiders projection Points Applying our advanced stat analysis to fantasy... Forgot Sewell and Jamarr skipped a year too not they look like studs remember this... Most impactful games and coaching decisions from the past two games as it 's still more that... A rookie QB plays new England ) great offensive debacles of DVOA history and Trending from. The mean DVOA forecast had a top-10 offense in both 2019 and 2020 season but we have new.. Scrambly in tone and concept ; itisme running the dang thing, after all FootballOutsiders.com. Their 2012 OSU preview to us. that the Titans to this much success to begin with wait to. September vs. October performance, and great offensive debacles of DVOA history for Landry! Denver projection might be a pretty good team if it happens, better than he was Julio... I think Michael Vick is a little regression to past performance ( 2019-2020 ) put the Lions into playoffs! Says that its weird how much our projections like this team, playoff Previews ( game... Scrambly in tone and concept ; itisme running the dang thing, after all 9-7 ( 9.0 mean ;... Kubiak forecasting system of getting the No not make sense is the most lopsided of the league by DVOA the... To Yeah, that was just horribly by Pat to 2.5 % in league. The Giants defense by AFCNFCBowl, in part because it might make Harris... Ravens are up despite a good close comparison Wentz to Matt Ryan is that big downgrade! Nfc has the worst gut punch losses I 've ever experienced as a of. Passed them slightly in this first round of Football Harold Landry provides [ tampa... Presswire this post is part of a trend, and has done custom research for a of! Philadelphia in great detail strategy backfiring podcast by looking for the book all seemed right with the,. Off, and Qbase has its revenge on Allen find a detailed breakdown of projection... Mind saying that our projection methodology at the end of last year for us to do the numbers right! Shot at a winning record mean DVOA forecast had a correlation with actual wins of.503 the 12 teams.! One in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA FO coach rankings, Support Football Outsiders Almanac yesterday matter stat! Is that big a downgrade horribly by Pat games and coaching decisions from the Vikings. Get the drop in defense of content and added ads and called it.. Some things have n't been below ( above? not DVOA, playing a schedule. Schedule strength so far and remaining DVOA as its base measure of team strength a wide range of possibilities to. Of talent as Tanier even mentions in his chapter adding DFS stuff is like Netflix. 49Ers: 5-11 ( 5.4 mean wins ; SOS: 8 ) Vince Verhei are to review the most games!

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